Cartels fear US retaliation as Trump-era pressure reshapes strategy: 'They fear the United States'

MEXICO CITY: Mexican drug cartels are increasingly calculated in their targeting decisions, often avoiding deliberately attacking American tourists and citizens out of concern it could prompt intensified U.S. retaliation, according to experts.

Following last month's killing of Ruben "Nemesio" Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," the powerful leader of the Mexican Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt joined "Fox & Friends" and had a warning for the drug gangs: "The Mexican drug cartels know not to lay a finger on a single American, or they will pay severe consequences under this president."

Analysts say actions by President Donald Trump - including the designation of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and high-profile operations abroad such as the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran - have reinforced cartel perceptions of heightened risk. 

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Mexican drug cartels have long operated with a primary objective: protect revenue streams and avoid actions that could trigger an overwhelming government response. Security analysts and former U.S. officials say that calculus often includes avoiding the deliberate targeting of American tourists and citizens inside Mexico.

"Of course, drug cartels are afraid of President Trump since he declared them terrorist organizations. That may be one of the reasons why they don't attack American citizens or tourists," cartel expert and activist Elena Chávez told Fox News Digital.

She said the cartels "modernized and are well-informed about what is happening, especially because they know there are bounties on their heads. That's why they fear the United States, even more so since Trump became president and declared the cartels terrorist organizations. Of course, they monitor all of this and have people who keep the leaders informed about how things are moving. The price on 'El Mencho's' head in the United States was very high."

Adding to the pressure, Trump spoke Saturday at the newly minted Shield of the Americas Summit in Florida - a coalition of 12 Latin American and Caribbean nations - coming together to take on the cartels, among other policies. 

"We have to knock the hell out of them because they're getting worse. They're taking over their country. The cartels are running Mexico. We can't have that. Too close to us," Trump warned.

"Right now, there must be more than a million Americans coming to Mexico to spend their vacations in their homes. The drug cartels don't mess with them or their homes. They know there's no way to avoid a reaction from the United States if they mess with its citizens. There's an unwritten rule that says you shouldn't mess with American citizens; if you do, you'll suffer retaliation from the United States. And even more so now with the Trump administration" Samuel González, national security expert and former prosecutor of the specialized unit on organized crime, told Fox News Digital.

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While high-profile killings of Americans in Mexico have occurred, experts describe them as isolated and liabilities to cartel interests rather than part of a strategic campaign.

"There are several precedents that demonstrate why the cartels are particularly careful not to touch American citizens. One of the most important was the Camarena case: the kidnapping, torture, and murder of DEA agent Enrique 'Kiki' Camarena in 1985 in Mexico, perpetrated by leaders of the Guadalajara Cartel (Rafael Caro Quintero, Miguel Ángel Félix Gallardo, and Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo) in retaliation for the destruction of 'El Búfalo' marijuana ranch.

"This crime marked a turning point in the anti-drug relationship between Mexico and the U.S., prompting the DEA's 'Operation Leyenda' to capture those responsible and revealing the complicity between drug traffickers and high-ranking Mexican officials."

He added, "Another case is that of Agent Zapata. On Feb. 15, 2011, gunmen from 'Los Zetas' cartel killed Special Agent Jaime Zapata of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE/HSI) and shot Agent Victor Avila on a highway in San Luis Potosi, Mexico. The murder triggered intense pressure from the United States on Mexico to combat the cartels, resulting in the capture of several implicated Los Zetas members, including Julián Zapata Espinoza, alias 'El Piolin.'

"All these precedents are examples of why the cartels learned that it is not in their best interest to attack American citizens."

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Security experts say cartels closely monitor political rhetoric in Washington, particularly statements suggesting unilateral U.S. military action or expanded cross-border operations. Public debate over labeling cartels as terrorist groups has resurfaced in recent years, with some lawmakers arguing it would provide additional tools to disrupt financing and logistics networks.

According to former federal officials, cartels' avoidance of deliberately targeting Americans is rooted less in ideology and more in risk management. High-profile attacks on U.S. citizens can generate intense media coverage, diplomatic strain and increased enforcement operations that disrupt trafficking routes.

Director General of the National Citizen Observatory, Francisco Rivas, told Fox News Digital: "Drug traffickers are much more afraid of attacking a foreigner than a Mexican because crimes against foreigners are prosecuted much more severely by the Mexican authorities. The greater media pressure when the victim is a foreigner creates more incentive for the police and prosecutors to investigate a kidnapping, extortion, disappearance or homicide."

"In Mexico, more than 90% of intentional homicides and disappearances are related to people who had specific contact with the cartels, primarily for business reasons. The problems tourists experience in Mexico are the same as they might encounter in Miami, London, Rome or Paris: robberies, fraud and even some extortion, but these are proportionally marginal. Most crimes suffered in Mexico are suffered by Mexicans, and most violent crimes involve Mexican victims linked to cartels," he said.

While millions of Americans travel to Mexico each year without incident, law enforcement officials emphasize that criminal violence remains widespread in regions where cartels operate.

Authorities on both sides of the border maintain that cartel decision-making is driven by financial incentives and survival calculations. Actions perceived as likely to trigger direct U.S. retaliation are widely viewed by analysts as counterproductive to those interests.